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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.