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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."