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A bettor made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from confidential information of American actions.

Market Movement in Forecasts

Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended.

One account, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement

Platform data shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.

However these probabilities had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made.

"This specific wager has all the signs of a trade based on inside information," commented Dennis Kelleher.

A small number of other traders also earned significant sums from similar wagers.

Legal Questions Intensifies

Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.

Proposed legislation introduced on recently seeks to ban federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a wager.

Market Background

Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to political events.

This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting industry.

An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."